Forecasting psychology is the set of habits for building a forecast that sees reality:
- Prepare to see reality. Forget the 📝Big Vision. Focus on your 📝Unit Economics.
- Start with the 📝Revenue Generation System and 📝Vital Signs.
- Assemble the data that you have available now. The 📝First time is Handmade.
- Learn to beat your 📝Base Budget. Get better at predicting your base case first this month, this quarter, then this year. If the trends in the data continue, what will happen?
- Use 📝Scenario Charts to visualize the Base Budget.
- Practice predicting what you could fall out of bed and accomplish.
- Observe the results.
- Play with the drivers.
- Adapt the model to the business.
- Follow 📝The Process.