Written in March 2020, one week into the COVID-19 lockdowns.
Pandemic: This is just a mathematical equation. Our vigilance in closing schools and all the drastic action will pay off in containing the virus. It's worked when we knew less; see 100 Years of Epidemics in Photos by The NY Times.
Containment and testing will stem the growth of infections. Testing remains the limiter of the quality of the data on new cases and death rate. The numbers are understated, and it's mathematically impossible for China to have no more new infections. Localized blooms will persist until enough people get it or there is a vaccine.
The economy: We have never experienced anything of this magnitude. Layoffs will mount. The cures the politicians are proposing may be worse than the disease. More 📝Liquidity continues to stretch the system like the addict that eventually ODs.
Emerging Companies: 📝The Aftermath for Small Businesses will be similar to the dot-com era in that some companies will be starved for cash and be recapitalized (read: down round) or die. Companies with positive 📝unit economics will tighten their belts and continue to be funded. I've been connecting with lots of founders experiencing all of these things recently.
Socially: Isolation is depressing for many and we're only one week in. I'm concerned it will take a long time before we all feel comfortable again in something as mundane as being in line at Starbucks. On the other hand, you only know what you've got when it's gone, so I remain optimistic about the new resonance that inevitably follows a dislocation.
Working from home: I'm excited for the shove in the direction of connecting online that this represents. More balance in this regard is a good thing. I know it's awkward at first; one of my colleagues at 📝Assembled Brands has his meetings from his utility closet.
I've been working from home at least 2 days a week for the last 14 years. I've had a Zoom room in my office (aka the Mancave) for six months. I've been training my kids to stay away from the office for 14 years, and they've learned hand signals and body language surprisingly well.
To me it feels like the rest of the world is catching up, but then again six weeks ago I planted potatoes and onions and only this week realized I might be a prepper.
Just for fun: A group I'm in that has been meeting every two weeks for a year, 📝Symposium, suddenly moved its IRL experience online as a 📝Symposium Fractal, and it was really fun. I haven't had that type of experience since I left 📝Second Life 11 years ago.