Objective

With some simple pipleline math, provided by Alexander Shartsis, founders who hate sales can have a quantitative framework designed to replace subjective intuition in outbound sales with a predictive mathematical model. According to Alexander Shartsis, the model utilizes four primary variables: a monthly meeting goal, deliverability percentage, reply rate, and the conversion rate of positive replies to booked meetings. By applying the formula to calculate the number of emails required, divide the monthly meeting goal by the product of the deliverability rate, reply rate, and the conversion rate of positive replies to booked meetings. The framework prioritizes fixing technical deliverability and messaging resonance over simply increasing email volume to avoid burning through lead lists.

The 4 numbers that matter

You only need four inputs to predict how many cold emails you need to hit a meeting goal:

1. Meetings goal (M)
   How many meetings you want this month.

2. Deliverability (D)
   What % of emails actually land (not bounce/spam). Use a conservative estimate if unsure.

3. Reply rate (R)
   Replies / emails delivered.

4. “Good reply → meeting” rate (G)
   Of the replies that are actually relevant/positive, what % convert to a booked meeting.

Formula:
Emails needed = M ÷ (D × R × G)

Subjective

I often find that most founders don't actually dislike the act of selling, they dislike the weight of uncertainty. There is a specific kind of anxiety that comes from failing fast and hard without knowing if the effort will ever yield a result.

This approach reframes sales as a boring, reliable accounting task rather than a high-stakes performance. It turns the nebulous "vibe" of a sales campaign into a manageable budget of activity. When I look at these numbers, the stress of the unknown transforms into a clear, actionable checklist that makes the path to the next milestone feel scientific rather than speculative.

Contexts

• #sales